Does blackjack card counting really work? Part 1
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Nowadays, there are many different types of insurance one can buy — there is life insurance, car insurance, travel insurance, health insurance, property insurance, and liability insurance.
You can even buy game rules simple blackjack poker in gambling establishments whenever you take a seat at one of their blackjack tables.
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The latter is a type of proposition bet in blackjack that has been the subject of hot debates for decades.
Few are bold enough to argue in favor of taking insurance but the vast majority of blackjack experts recommend you to refrain from ever making this bet.
How Blackjack Insurance Works Blackjack players are offered insurance whenever is an Ace.
This blackjack expected value an optional proposition wager which is treated separately from your original bet.
When you buy insurance, you are practically betting your dealer has a ten-value card in the hole next to their Ace for a blackjack.
You can insure any two-card hand against a dealer blackjack by betting up to half of your original wager.
There are two possible scenarios when you take insurance.
If the dealer indeed blackjack bonus bet a blackjack and you do not, you lose your original stake but win the insurance bet at casino odds of 2 to 1, i.
Provided that the dealer does not have a https://indonesiaairsoft.com/blackjack/blackjack-free-bet-dealer-mistake.html card in the hole, you lose the insurance bet and play on your hand continues as usual.
The dealer peeks under their hole card and it turns out it is indeed a ten-value card giving them a blackjack.
You break even, i.
Is Taking Insurance Worth It?
Some visit web page argue in favor of insurance and the basic premise of their argument is that you lose your entire initial bet if you do not insure your hand as opposed to breaking even when you accept insurance.
Casino operators themselves want you to believe they are doing you a favor by allowing you to insure yourself against a possible dealer blackjack.
Some dealers are even instructed to advise players on accepting insurance.
The truth of the matter is you are insuring nothing.
What you are doing with this side bet is wagering the dealer has a ten-value card in the hole.
This has nothing to do with boosting the odds of your original bet but it has everything to do with decreasing your long-term expected value and here is why.
Suppose you are playing a six-deck blackjack expected value where the ratio of non-ten cards to ten-value cards is 216 to 96.
The six decks have just been reshuffled, the dealer exposes an Ace at the start of the first round, and offers you to buy insurance.
Provided that we do not take into consideration the composition of your starting two-card total, the ratio of non-ten-value cards to ten-value blackjack expected value is now 215 to 96 because one of the Aces has already left the shoe.
No wonder dealers are recommending patrons to insure their hands!
Taking Insurance Additional TipsWhat if we introduce your starting two cards into the equation?
There is a but you are still losing lots of money by buying insurance.
Some people argue you must insure only pat hands like hard 20 and naturals and decline insurance when you have bad hands like hard 12 or hard 13.
Out of 309 cards left, you have 94 ten-value cards and 215 non-ten-value cards because one of the Aces has been removed.
No matter how we beat about the bush, insurance is a bad bet and as such, should be altogether avoided.
But There Are Exceptions to Any Rule If you take the time to examine a basic strategy chart closely, you will surely notice one strange phenomenon.
The correct plays for splitting, hitting, standing,and surrendering against all possible dealer cards are listed while insurance is strangely absent from the chart.
The reason is simple — should never take insurance because it is a negative-expectation bet in the long term.
The odds of winning with this wager are slimmer than the odds the casino pays you at.
Of course, there are exceptions to all rules, including this one because the insurance bet is susceptible to advantage-play techniques such as card counting.
This gives them the opportunity to identify the situations in which insurance becomes a positive-expectation bet.
When the remaining ten-value cards outnumber the non-ten-value cards, a card counter is more likely to insure their hands against a dealer blackjack.
Additional ExceptionsConsider the following situation where you are playing a pitch game which containing 52 cards in total.
During the first round after the dealer reshuffles, you take a look at your starting hand and see it consists of two small cards, say 6-3.
You also manage to catch a glimpse of the hand of the other player sitting at the table and see it also consists of two small cards, 4-5.
Your dealer is showing an Ace.
continue reading means 5 cards with a value other than ten are no longer in play and the deck is now left with 47 cards in total.
The odds of the dealer having a blackjack are now 31 to 16 because we have 31 non-ten-value cards and 16 ten-value cards.
Respectively, the implied probability of you winning your insurance bet is 1 in 47, which corresponds to a likelihood of 2.
Insurance becomes a positive-expectation bet under these circumstances.
The Blackjack Even-Money Payout The even-money payout is offered when players obtain a blackjack and the dealer exposes an Ace.
Most inexperienced gamblers get confused when this happens and often end up asking fellow patrons or the dealer for advice.
Should they accept the even-money payout or should they decline?
And of course, the dealer would always recommend them to accept even money because this way, they will not lose anything during this round.
This is a bad piece of advice which you should never take.
Here is the thing — the even-money payout is blackjack expected value the same thing as insurance with a few tiny differences.
The first difference is that this is a possible option only when the player has a blackjack and the dealer shows an Ace.
Also, if you accept even money, the dealer would pay you out before he or she peeks under their hole card for a blackjack, unlike winning insurance bets which are paid after the peek.
The Even-Money Payout is Insurance in Disguise Insurance and even money are the two sides of one and the same coin.
In the second scenario, you again decide to accept insurance but it turns out the dealer does not have a natural.
The third possible situation you can find yourself in is when you decline insurance but the dealer also ends up having a natural.
The two blackjacks push again and you neither lose nor win anything.
And finally, we have the click the following article where you decline buying insurance and the dealer does not have a ten-value card in the hole.
It follows that if you always accept insurance on your blackjacks, you inevitably end up winning even money whether or not the dealer also has a natural.
By offering you even money before the dealer peeks for a blackjack, casinos simply spare you the hassles of insuring your hand.
Inexperienced players reason accepting even money is a good alternative because if they decline and the dealer also ends up with a blackjack, the two naturals will push, i.
They seem to believe a profit of one base-bet unit is better than no profit at all.
It follows that when you insure your hand, you end up winning even money 30.
If you decline insurance, 30.
Therefore, the probability of you winning 1.
The bottom line is basic strategy players should never insure their hands or accept even-money payouts on their naturals.
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Blackjack 101: Thinking in Terms of EV
The following two tables provide expected values for full game of single-deck blackjack calculated from the Expected Value Tables listed below (and using the ...
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